Drew Phelps
June 7, 2024 12:09 am ET
The Minnesota Twins (33-29) and Pittsburgh Pirates (29-33) begin a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from PNC Park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET (Apple TV+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around theTwins vs. Pirates odds and make our expertMLB picks and predictionsfor the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Twins won 2 of 3 in 2023
Minnesota was swept by the New York Yankees after falling 8-5 on Thursday night. They were outscored 22-11 in the 3-game series in the Bronx. RHP Pablo Lopez was knocked around for 7 ER, lasting only 4 innings. The Twins got solo shots from SS Carlos Correa and C Christian Vazquez. They are 2-4 during their current 9-game road trip, which concludes in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates failed to complete the sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers on Thursday night, falling 11-7. LHP Bailey Falter struggled through 4 innings, giving up 5 ER on 8 hits. SS Oneil Cruz had a big night in the loss, going 2-for-5 with a 3-run HR. Pittsburgh has won 4 of its last 6 games at PNC Park.
Twins at Pirates projected starters
RHP Joe Ryan vs. RHP Mitch Keller
Ryan (4-4, 3.38 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 1.4 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 72 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 5-2 loss at the Houston Astros Saturday
- Career vs Pirates: 1-3, 8.53 ERA (19 IP, 18 ER) in 4 starts
Keller (7-3, 3.42 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 73 2/3 IP.
- Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 8-1 victory at the Toronto Blue Jays Saturday
- Has won 5 straight decisions
- Last start vs Twins: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 12 K in 7-4 road victory on Aug 19, 2023
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Twins at Pirates odds
Provided byFanDuel Sportsbook; accessUSA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:01 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -126 (bet $126 to win $100) | Pirates +108 (bet $100 to win $108)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+134) | Pirates +1.5 (-162)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)
Twins at Pirates picks and predictions
Prediction
Pirates 5, Twins 2
Moneyline.
BET PIRATES (+108).
I’m pleasantly surprised to see the Pirates getting plus money at home against a struggling Twins team. You should jump all over the Bucs especially with Keller on the mound. He owned Minnesota last year striking out 12 in 6 innings. Keller has been lights out, allowing a total of 5 ER over his last 5 starts (33 2/3 IP). The Twins are batting only .219 as a team against righties.
The Twins are floundering on this road trip and the Pirates will take advantage of that on Friday night and I have a feeling over the course of this 3-game set.
Run line/Against the spread
PASS.
I’m putting my unit bet on the moneyline and will avoid the run line.
Over/Under
PASS.
My lean is to the Under (+100) but I don’t see an edge to officially make a recommendation. I’m confident that Keller shuts down this Twins lineup, but I’m worried that the Pirates offense may push the game Over. So, I’ll just stay away.
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